Аналитика

Price forecast weekly from 3 to 7 of August 2020

03 августа 2020, 12:38

Energy market:

Royal Dutch Shell losses in the second quarter reached $ 18 billion. Other companies in the energy sector have similar difficulties. If oil prices continue to be at current levels and, moreover, they prefer to fall against the background of a 32.9% drop in the US economy in the second quarter, then the underfunding of new projects will become chronic, which will lead to a drop in production in the regions where the cost is at the high level. Note that the problems of major European and American players play into the hands of OPEC.

The regulated hysteria over the second wave of coronavirus begins to intensify, which could lead to pressure on prices. Even if we see a largely provocative upside breakout in Brent towards 46.00, the pullback from there could be quite strong. Until there is confidence in the growth of demand for energy on the horizon, the oil market will be extremely difficult in the region of $ 50.00 per barrel.

Reading our predictions, you could earn: buying a Gasoil contract, taking a move from 305.0 to 369.0, as well as buying a euro against a dollar, taking a move from 1.0800 to 1.1775, and in addition buying a dollar against a ruble, taking a move from 68.00 to 74.50.

Grain market:

Data on good prospects for the harvest in Russia did not allow the wheat market to grow, however, the chances for the price movement upwards still remain. The bulls have a couple more weeks, after which the new harvest will force the current quotes to go down.

The crop acreage for grain and leguminous crops in Russian farms of all categories in 2020 is estimated at 47.981 million hectares (46.66 million hectares a year earlier), including 29.421 million hectares of wheat against 28.092 million hectares last year. Russia may reach the level of 80 million tons of wheat by the end of the current season, which is 3-4% higher than the estimates of early July.

The USDA on Thursday confirmed that Chinese buyers made their largest US corn purchase at 1.937 million tons, despite rising tensions between Washington and Beijing. This kept the feed crop market from falling sharply. However, the downtrend for corn still remains due to favorable weather forecasts for the coming days.

USD/RUB:

The US Federal Reserve left the rate unchanged at the level of 0 — 0.25%. Powell’s comment can be deciphered as cautiously optimistic. It contains a reference to the increased health care costs due to the virus and certain risks, but no one expects 30% of GDP failures per quarter.

Let’s assume that now any positive data on the US economy will be accepted by the market very optimistically. The dollar index after a strong fall in July will receive support from any hints of stabilization of the situation.

The Fed extended seven emergency lending programs to support economic activity during the coronavirus pandemic for 3 months — until December 31, 2020. Demand for these programs is falling, but the virus problem remains.

The ruble falls due to the payment of dividends and their conversion into dollars. The tax-free withdrawal of the received profit in the form of dividends abroad, thanks to the government, contributes to the active outflow of funds from the country. The national currency shows no signs of life yet. We can carefully start talking about reaching the level of 79.00 rubles per dollar in the second half of August, if the level of 75.00 is passed up without any hint of a correction.

Brent. ICE

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the ICE exchange.

We see a strong rate of speculators to fall. While the market keeps up, but if the pressure continues to build up, the way down is inevitable. Buyers lose faith in the move by 50.00.

Growth scenario: August futures, the expiration date is August 31. We continue to believe that there is no point in rushing shopping. If there is an increase above 45.00, you can look for options on the 1H intervals.

Falling scenario: the market struggle is fierce, prices are in a narrow corridor. Buyers are still from 41.00, but they are unlikely to be able to keep the market above 40.00 if another downward attack is attempted, like the one we saw on Thursday.

Recommendation:

Purchase: possible at the 1H intervals after the growth above 45.00.

Sell: when a daily red candle appears with a close below 42.50. Stop: 43.60. Target: 32.10. Who sold at 44.70, hold the stop at 45.70. Target: 32.10.

Support — 32.05. Resistance — 44.49.

WTI. CME Group

Fundamental: the number of oil drilling rigs in the United States fell by 1 unit to 180 units.

US commercial oil reserves fell by -10.611 to 525.969 million barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 0.654 to 247.387 million barrels. Distillate stocks rose by 0.503 to 178.386 million barrels. Stocks at the Cushing storage facility increased by 1.309 to 51.421 million barrels.

Oil production has not changed at 11.1 million barrels per day. Oil imports fell by -0.795 to 5.146 million barrels per day. Oil exports rose 0.218 to 3.211 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports fell by -1.013 to 1.935 million barrels per day. Oil refining increased by 1.6 to 79.5 percent.

Gasoline demand rose 0.259 to 8.809 million barrels per day. Gasoline production rose 0.079 to 9.158 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports rose 0.382 to 0.924 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports fell by -0.038 to 0.441 million barrels per day.

Distillate demand rose by 0.412 to 3.635 million barrels. Distillate production rose 0.02 to 4.783 million barrels. Distillate imports rose 0.096 to 0.148 million barrels. Distillate exports fell by -0.215 to 1.224 million barrels per day.

The demand for petroleum products increased by 1.44 to 19.094 million barrels. Distillate production rose 0.34 to 21.087 million barrels. Distillate imports rose by 0.185 to 2.108 million barrels. Gasoline exports fell by -0.821 to 4.079 million barrels per day.

Propane demand rose by 0.428 to 1.429 million barrels. Propane production increased by 0.118 to 2.332 million barrels. Propane imports rose 0.005 to 0.098 million barrels. Propane exports fell by -0.302 to 0.713 million barrels per day.

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

The bulls got tired of fighting and gave up the useless occupation. At the same time, sellers appeared. There is a downward reversal in the market. The situation on WTI is clearly bearish. One more blow and sellers will reverse the trend down.

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date August 20. The bulls showed nothing inside a week. There is no point in buying. We need long green candles up.

Falling scenario: in the current situation, we should fall by at least 35.00, then 30.00 awaits us. You can sell here. Prices left the «diagonal triangle» and went down.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no.

Sale: when approaching 43.00. Stop: 43.60. Target: 30.00. Or now. Stop: 41.70. Target: 30.00. Anyone in the position, from 39.90, move the stop to 41.70. Target: 30.00.

Support — 34.97. Resistance — 42.98.

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: August futures, the expiration date is August 12. The drop in demand for gasoline by the end of the summer is an obvious fact. The bearish attack on Thursday caused serious damage to buyers. Unlike Brent, there was no significant upward rebound. Don’t buy.

Falling scenario: sell here. Prices should go down the width of the channel from the breakout point. Thus, our nearest target is 320.0. Moving to 300.0 is possible.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. We took a move from 305.0 to 369.0.

Sale: now. Stop: 383.0. Target: 300.0. Whoever is in the position from 360.0, keep the stop at 383.0. Target: 300.0.

Support — 300.00. Resistance — 429.00.

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario: September futures, the expiration date is August 27. We took the resistance line and now test it from the other side. LNG supplies to Europe from the United States were discounted. Russia put the pipelines in repair. There are prerequisites for rising prices.

Falling scenario: we will not sell. The technical picture is on the side of the bulls.

Recommendation:

Purchase: now. Stop: 1.710. Target: 3.500. Anyone in position 1.850, move your stop to 1.710. Target: 3.500.

Sale: no.

Support — 1.707. Resistance — 1.934.

Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

Buyers decreased activity last week. Prices remain in the range. The bulls have a chance to break through to 600.0, but prices are not visible above this mark against the background of a high harvest.

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date September 14. Despite the triggering of the trailing stop-loss, which, we note, still gave us 4 cents of profit, we will enter the purchase again. If the current consolidation ends with an upside breakout, prices will actively rise for two weeks.

Falling scenario: we will think about sales only when the market approaches 595.0. It’s possible to sale when it falls below 520.0, but this is a less interesting scenario for taking profit. We are not considering it.

Recommendation:

Purchase: now. Stop: 518.0. Target: 595.0.

Sale: no.

Support — 516.4. Resistance — 534.6.

Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

There is a fight going on. Speculators’ money from both sides comes into the market. The fall is likely to continue, but around 300.0 we will see a large accumulation of buy orders.

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date September 14. The market ultimately moved below 320.0, which is unpleasant. Now we will buy only when we approach 300.0.

Falling scenario: we continue to refrain from selling, as prices are historically low. An active buyer may appear on the market at any time.

Recommendation:

Purchase: think when approaching 300.0.

Sale: no.

Support — 302.6. Resistance — 321.6.

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date September 14. Found support at 880.0, but this is not enough for us to enter the purchase again. While we are waiting.

Falling scenario: the bet that the market will not be able to take 905.0 has played. Now you can pull the stop order closer and then watch how things unfold.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no.

Sale: no. Those who are in the position from 895.0, move the stop to 902.0. Target: 861.0.

Support — 879.2. Resistance — 905.4.

Sugar 11 white, ICE

Growth scenario: October futures, expiration date September 30. After rising above 12.10, we entered the purchase. We stand. We wait. Friday’s candlestick looks great, we will count on growth by 14.00. Further, we have a mark of 16.80.

Falling scenario: this is no deal with sales. Now we will think about shorts only after prices approach 14.00.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Those who are in the position from 12.11, move the stop to 11.70. Target: 14.00 (16.80).

Sale: no.

Support — 11.83. Resistance — 14.01.

Сoffee С, ICE

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date September 18. The market continues to accelerate. A rollback came to head. If this really happens and prices drop to at least 112.0, you can buy it. We keep longs.

Falling scenario: there is no point in selling. It is not clear to what levels the market will reach. Coronavirus fears in Brazil are fueling traders’ anxiety.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Those who are in positions between 100.0 and 96.00, move the stop to 107.00. Target: 125.0.

Sale: no.

Support — 114.80. Resistance — 129.25.

Gold. CME Group

Growth scenario: we were right not to take profit at 1915. We keep longs further. Movement to 2200 is possible.

Falling scenario: we don’t think about sales yet. The market is somewhat overbought, but the Fed is not winding up bailout programs, which means printing money.

Recommendations:

Purchase: no. Those who are in positions from 1750 and 1800, move the stop to 1944. Target: 2200.

Sale: no.

Support — 1917. Resistance — 2028.

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: Friday was bearish. Three-wave structure of the impulse is irrefutable. A rollback takes shape. It is likely that prices will go down to 1.1500. We close all longs at the current levels.

Falling scenario: Eurozone GDP is estimated to fall 10% this year. At the end of the year, the Americans may show a decline of 11 — 12% in the fall, which is also acceptable in the current conditions, given a bad turn of events. Thus, the problems of the dollar and the euro are comparable. A pullback to 1.1500 will be a natural development.

Recommendation:

Purchase: on touch 1.1500. Stop: 1.1300. Target: 1.2800. Close everything. We took a move from 1.0800 to 1.1775.

Sale: no.

Support — 1.1426. Resistance — 1.1907.

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: the exchange of received dividends in rubles for dollars moves the market up. If we are lucky, we will use the rollback to 73.00 to build up our positions. It would be mean if prices immediately go to 78.80. However, we must admit: given the historically unpleasant nature of the ruble fluctuations in August, this is quite possible.

Falling scenario: resistance was broken at 72.00, which led to a sharp move up. Around 75.00 a fight is possible, but it is better to practice it at 1H intervals.

Recommendations:

Purchase: on touch 73.10 and 72.60. Stop: 71.90. Target: 78.80. We took a move from 68.00 to 74.50.

Sale: no.

Support — 72.18. Resistance — 74.65 (78.84).

RTSI

Growth scenario: want to see a long green candle, but there is none. Instead of optimism, we see unsuccessful attempts to go above 1280, which suggests that the bulls are unable to give us a move to 1450. Don’t buy yet.

Falling scenario: we continue to believe that as long as we have not climbed above 1286, we can sell. Moody’s announced the threat of default by Gutsiriev’s RussNeft, which does not add optimism. It is possible that closer to autumn we will see a series of bankruptcies, and these facts will intensify the negative mood.

Recommendations:

Purchase: think in case of growth above 1286. Possible target is 1450.

Sale: now. Stop: 1286. Target: 1000 (600?). Who is in the position from 1260, keep the stop at 1286. Target: 1000 (600 ?, 300? !!!).

Support — 1170. Resistance — 1277 (1314).

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

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