Аналитика

Price forecast weekly from 10 to 14 of August 2020

10 августа 2020, 11:30

Energy market:

Iraq speaks about reducing oil production on its own initiative by 400 thousand barrels per day. The princes and energy ministers say that domestic demand in exporting countries has grown amid recovery, which should reduce supply on the external market at the same production levels. Nevertheless, traders don’t hear any of this!

The bearish speculators have been increasing the volume of open positions for the second week in the expectation that Brent will not rise above 47.00. It is possible that sellers will have to endure a week, maybe two, but sooner or later the market will fall. While there are chances that America will go into another quarantine, if not all, then California in particular, there is no sense in talking about price increases.

Many internet giants in Silicon Valley (Instagram, Facebook) are directing employees to work from home until April 2021. This is a symptom. What is the growth in consumption here? Supposing OPEC would have to urgently cut production again in September.

Grain market:

Judging by the results of the Egyptian tender, where the companies managed to sell wheat from the Black Sea region at $ 212 per tonne, there is support from buyers in the physical market. However, if in August it becomes clear that there will be an extremely large amount of grain, many importing countries will prefer to take a break from a couple of weeks to a month in order to wait for more favorable prices.

We are waiting for the release of data from the USDA on August 12. Judging by what is happening on the exchange market, traders believe in high gross receipts, as prices go lower and lower. The situation is especially dramatic for corn, where the market is determined to visit the price levels of the early 2000s.

By reading our predictions, you could have earned in the coffee market by taking the move from 96.00 to 125.00 cents per pound.

USD/RUB:

So far, the ruble is not as bad as one might expect earlier. The threat of extending the program of «helicopter money» in the United States puts pressure on the minds of traders, as a result of which the dollar index continues to fall. Note that the fall of the American currency against other currencies of developed countries still has a technical potential for weakening from the current levels of 10-15%.

As long as Brent is above $ 40.00 per barrel, nothing threatens the ruble. Yes, most likely the balance of payments in the third quarter will be close to zero, but the current volume of reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation of $ 591.8 billion is more than enough to eliminate the imbalances.

If there is a weakening of the national currency, then everything can be limited to 79.00 rubles per dollar.

Brent. ICE

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the ICE exchange.

For two weeks in a row, sellers have been building up their shorts, which speaks of the decisive mood of some market participants. As a rule, large players have a margin of safety and as prices rise, they can increase their sell positions. It is possible that in the near future we will see just such a scenario.

Growth scenario: August futures, the expiration date is August 31. By the end of the week, the bulls are extremely unconvincing. We will not buy here.

Fallng scenario: if prices fall below 43.50, the market will go down. The situation in the gasoil market, where the picture is even more bearish, tells us that oil may go down next week.

Recommendation:

Purchase: you can try on the 1H intervals after the growth above 45.00.

Sell: when a daily red candle appears with a close below 43.50. Stop: 45.60. Target: 32.10.

Support — 32.05. Resistance — 53.61.

WTI. CME Group

Fundamental: the number of oil drilling rigs in the US dropped by 4 units to 176 units.

US commercial oil reserves fell by -7.373 to 518.596 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 0.419 to 247.806 million barrels. Distillate stocks rose by 1.591 to 179.977 million barrels. Inventories at the Cushing storage facility rose 0.532 to 51.953 million barrels.

Oil production fell by -0.1 to 11 million barrels per day. Oil imports rose 0.864 to 6.01 million barrels per day. Oil exports fell by -0.392 to 2.819 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports rose by 1.256 to 3.191 million barrels per day. Oil refining increased by 0.1 to 79.6 percent.

Gasoline demand fell by -0.192 to 8.617 million barrels per day. Gasoline production rose 0.142 to 9.3 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports fell by -0.267 to 0.657 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports rose 0.329 to 0.77 million barrels per day.

Distillate demand rose 0.065 to 3.7 million barrels. Distillate production increased by 0.126 to 4.909 million barrels. Distillate imports fell by -0.017 to 0.131 million barrels. Distillate exports fell by -0.111 to 1.113 million barrels per day.

The demand for petroleum products fell by -1.182 to 17.912 million barrels. Distillate production rose 0.097 to 21.184 million barrels. Distillate imports rose 0.142 to 2.25 million barrels. Gasoline exports rose 1.18 to 5.259 million barrels per day.

Propane demand fell by -0.643 to 0.786 million barrels. Propane production rose 0.001 to 2.333 million barrels. Propane imports rose 0.022 to 0.12 million barrels. Propane exports rose 0.624 to 1.337 million barrels per day.

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

Sellers are not as determined on WTI as on Brent. We even see some growth in rates for upward movement, but it cannot yet determine the direction of price movement, since the volume of purchases is insignificant.

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date August 20. The bulls look very weak. The sellers won the second half of the week. We do not buy.

Falling scenario: we continue to believe that in the current situation we should fall by at least 35.00, then we will meet 30.00. If you weren’t short last week, wait for the candle to close below 40.00 and sell. There you can also build up shorts for those who are already on sale.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no.

Sell: when the candle closes below 40.00. Stop: 42.70. Target: 30.00. Anyone in position from 42.00, keep the stop at 44.60. Target: 30.00.

Support — 34.97. Resistance — 42.98.

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date September 10. The bulls were broken when they tried to break above 400.0. While thinking about shopping is pointless.

Falling scenario: despite the fact that we were knocked out by stop-order at 383.0 — here we have to sell again. Moving to 300.0 is possible. Sellers will build up pressure next week.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no.

Sale: now. Stop: 387.0. Target: 300.0.

Support — 329.00. Resistance — 392.00.

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario: September futures, the expiration date August 27. Hot weather in Europe and a reduction in gas supplies from Russia and the United States contributed to the fact that gas consumption in the territories controlled by Brussels increased significantly. The air conditioners need electricity.

Falling scenario: we will sell when approaching 2.730, not earlier. The market still has potential for growth.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Those who are in the position from 1.850, move the stop to 1.910. Target: 2.730 (3.500?).

Sale: not yet.

Support — 1.903. Resistance — 2.730.

Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

Buyers fled, sellers showed signs of life. Prices are low and we need a reason to push them even lower. Some increase in the volume of the harvest is already in the price. How the market will continue to fall is not clear.

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date September 14. Yes, the fall below 518.0 was an unpleasant surprise. We see that on Friday buyers met the market at 490.0. If there is a green candle while the market is above 490.0, buy.

Falling scenario: here we have sadness and anxiety. We will not sell from such low price levels.

Recommendation:

Purchase: when a green candle appears while the market is above 490.0. Stop: 477.0. Target: 595.0.

Sale: no.

Support — 489.0. Resistance — 516.4.

Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

There buyers appeared. There are still few of them and most likely they suffer losses, since positions are closed by stops, but the fact itself is remarkable: there are those who think that the market may reverse. This gives a drop of hope that corn will remain a commodity that can still be sold for money in the near future.

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date September 14. We will buy only when we approach 300.0, there will probably be a handful of brave men. We will join to them.

Falling scenario: in order to sell now you need to believe in the market move to 250.0. We do not believe therefore we do not sell.

Recommendation:

Purchase: when approaching 300.0. Stop: 287.0. Target: 350.0.

Sale: no.

Support — 303.0. Resistance — 315.0.

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date September 14. It is necessary to recognize the current price levels as attractive for purchases. Despite the political squabbling between Washington and Beijing, which makes it less likely that China will buy food from the US, we will buy here, largely due to technical considerations.

Falling scenario: we are at the levels where we need to take profits. It is possible to count on the market to continue falling further, but 30% of the volume of previously opened positions will be enough to test this theory.

Recommendation:

Purchase: now. Stop: 844.0. Target: 1000.0.

Sale: no. Close everything. We took a move from 895.0 to 865.0.

Support — 861.0. Resistance — 879.2.

Sugar 11 white, ICE

Growth scenario: October futures, the expiration date September 30. We will count on continued growth by 14.00. If there is a rollback to 12.00, you can increase purchases.

Falling scenario: let’s think about shorts when prices approach 14.00. If the growth is fast and unidirectional, then we will not sell from 14.00.

Recommendation:

Purchase: on touch 12.05. Stop: 11.77. Target: 14.00 (16.80). Those who are in the position from 12.11, move the stop to 11.77. Target: 14.00 (16.80).

Sale: no.

Support — 12.43. Resistance — 14.01.

Сoffee С, ICE

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date September 18. The market provides an opportunity to buy again. We need to do this. Rollback to 110.0 is possible. If this happens, then there you can build up positions again.

Falling scenario: we will not sell. We have risen quite sharply amid concerns about the impact of the coronavirus on the harvest in Brazil. A downward reversal now looks unlikely.

Recommendation:

Purchase: now and at 110.0. Stop: 104.0. Target: 150.0? We took the move from 96.00 to 125.0.

Sale: no.

Support — 105.20. Resistance — 129.25.

Gold. CME Group

Growth scenario: a pullback to 1965 suggests itself. Despite this, we keep longs. The 2250 mark is our target. Those who are nervous can close 20% of the position.

Falling scenario: we consider the short from the current levels to be premature. We are waiting for a rise in prices to the area of 2250.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Whoever is in position between 1750 and 1800, keep the stop at 1944. Target: 2250.

Sale: not yet.

Support — 1965. Resistance — 2087.

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: amid Friday’s US labor market data, which turned out to be bad, but still better than forecasted, the bears drew a long red candle down. We have been waiting for a rollback to 1.1500 for a week already. Apparently, the market will start drawing it.

Falling scenario: a pullback to 1.1500 is a normal working idea in this situation. You can sell here. It is possible that as the downward momentum forms, our goals will be revised.

Recommendation:

Purchase: not yet.

Sale: now. Stop: 1.1910. Target: 1.1500 (1.1000?).

Support — 1.1426. Resistance — 1.1907.

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: if a full-fledged rollback begins on the oil market next week, while the dollar index regains part of the lost positions, we will face a movement to 78.70. We will count on this. We keep longs.

Falling scenario: I would like to count on the fact that we will not rise above 74.00, but since we are in a growing price channel, we suggest that those who wish to consider this idea at 1H intervals. The sellers simply handed over the second half of the week to buyers. What makes sales look too provocative.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Those who are in the position from 73.10, move the stop to 72.40. Target: 78.70.

Sale: no.

Support — 72.18. Resistance — 74.65 (78.70).

RTSI

Growth scenario: fun Wednesday, sad Thursday, and equally sad Friday. The last three candles have very small shadows, which indicates that there is no struggle. Who entered the purchase, after the growth above 1286, move the stop orders to 1268. The current growth looks extremely sluggish and it is scary to keep longs now.

Falling scenario: it is difficult to talk about the growth of profits of companies included in the index against the background of the fall of the EU economy and the slowdown in China.

Profit of Sberbank for the first half of 2020 according to RAS before income tax fell to 396.5 billion rubles. For comparison, in the first half of 2019, Sberbank earned 444.2 billion rubles. The drop in revenue for the same period is 11%. This will clearly affect the amount of dividends next year.

An attempt to sell can be made if the index falls below 1220.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Those who are in the position from 1286, move the stop to 1268. The target is 1450.

Sell: on touch 1220. Stop: 1270. Target: 1000. Or, now. Stop: 1292. Target: 1000. Consider the risks carefully.

Support — 1170. Resistance — 1325.

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

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