Аналитика

Price forecast weekly from 24 to 28 of August 2020

24 августа 2020, 11:33

Energy market:

The main conclusion of the OPEC + meeting is the appointment of a new meeting for September. So, we see a wish to communicate with each other. Now you will have to constantly share the limited size pie and make sure that small exporting countries do not violate the agreement. Well, the more interesting, but the day of the meeting of the energy ministers will be very nervous.

We believe that OPEC’s forecasts of a recovery in consumption to 97 million barrels per day by the end of 2021 are too optimistic. In addition, against the background of the approaching economic crisis, when the authorities will be forced to let those firms that are really bankrupt die. The only question is when everything will start — before the US elections or after.

The new generation loves to run on electricity because it’s just trendy. Look at the boom of electric cars, electric scooters, electric bicycles, and the rest of the «electric», and it becomes clear that the trend to move your body from point A to point B using the potential difference at the battery terminals gets up steam. And for the rest there is natural gas just two a penny. There is no place for oil in this new world.

Grain market:

China’s still buys food from the United States. In addition, there is a high demand for French wheat by African countries. These facts support the market.

Most likely, FOB prices in the Black Sea region will remain at $ 200 per ton and will not fall below, thanks to concerns about the second wave of the virus. Importers do not want to find themselves in a situation where ports are plainly closed, and food in the country is coming to the end, as it was at the spring. Therefore, stocks will be replenished by all import dependent countries ahead of schedule.

USD/RUB:

We are on the verge of a major political crisis. The following is a value judgment, but this probability should be taken into account:

The story of Navalny’s poisoning may result in a scandal and a new round of sanctions, even if nothing is found in his blood in Germany. And maybe they will not search. There will be no collection of evidence. Merkel will simply come out and say: «Yes, the man was poisoned.» Then Trump writes the yet another tweet about the introduction of a limit on the purchase of oil and oil products from the Russian Federation by Western countries, after which the pair goes to the round figure 100.0. Then 200.0 and so on. Over there, you know, they need to somehow distract people from the daily grind. And here is such a new old reason: Russia.

If we forget about politics, then on the basis of our budget deficit due to the shortage of oil and gas revenues and due to the fall in tax collections. Manipulation with the ruble exchange rate towards weakening in this situation is the simplest and cheapest solution.

Brent. ICE

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the ICE exchange.

Speculator’s mood has changed. If a week ago people looked up, now the views have changed to the opposite. Changes in favor of sales are still small, but the bearish pressure is likely to increase.

Growth scenario: August futures, the expiration date is August 31. The market did not hold above 45.00, so we do not recommend to buy on the next week.

Falling scenario: sell here. It’s a pity, but we didn’t saw the 47.00 point. Note that in the event of an unexpected rise in prices above 45.50, the bulls may turn the market up.

Recommendation:

Purchase: think after a rise above 45.50.

Sale: now. Stop: 45.60. Target: 32.10. Anyone in the position from 43.90, keep the stop at 45.60. Target: 32.10.

Support — 32.05. Resistance — 44.24.

WTI. CME Group

Fundamental: the number of oil drilling rigs in the United States rose by 11 units to 183 units.

US commercial oil reserves fell -1.632 to 512.452 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by -3.322 to 243.762 million barrels. Distillate stocks rose by 0.152 to 177.807 million barrels. Inventories at Cushing’s storage fell -0.607 to 52.682 million barrels.

Oil production has not changed and amount 10.7 million barrels per day. Oil imports rose by 0.109 to 5.73 million barrels per day. Oil exports fell -1.006 to 2.137 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports rose by 1.115 to 3.593 million barrels per day. Refining fell -0.1 to 80.9 percent.

Gasoline demand fell by -0.253 to 8.63 million barrels per day. Gasoline production fell by -0.2 to 9.4 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports rose 556,999 to 557 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports rose 0.015 to 0.809 million barrels per day.

Distillate demand fell by -0.609 to 3.253 million barrels. Distillate production fell by -0.047 to 4.742 million barrels. Distillate imports fell -0.1 to 0.048 million barrels. Distillate exports rose 0.108 to 1.515 million barrels per day.

The demand for oil products fell -2.21 to 17.159 million barrels. Distillate production fell -2.4 to 19.555028 million barrels. Distillate imports fell by -0.951 to 1.351 million barrels. Gasoline exports rose 0.991 to 5.653 million barrels per day.

Propane demand fell by -0.013 to 1.106 million barrels. Propane production fell by -0.119 to 2.204 million barrels. Propane imports fell by -0.015 to 0.069 million barrels. Propane exports rose 0.259 to 1.172 million barrels per day.

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

The army of speculative sellers is growing, and the army of buyers has been melting in two weeks. This behavior will sooner or later break the market. It is possible that the turning point will come next week, directly on Monday.

Growth scenario: October futures, the expiration date is September 22. Buyers meet the market from 42.00, but judging by Brent they will have to give up. Note that the situation is delicate and we cannot draw unambiguous conclusions. We do not open new positions, keep old longs.

Falling scenario: for a guarantee, you can wait for the candlestick to close below 41.00. Neither side has a clear advantage yet. It’s too early to sell now.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Those who are in the position from 42.40, move the stop to 41.30. Target: 49.70.

Sell: when the candle closes below 41.00. Stop: 42.70. Target: 30.00. Anyone in the position from 42.00, move the stop to 43.60. Target: 30.00.

Support — 35.18. Resistance — 45.04.

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: September futures, the expiration date is September 10. We noted the formation of the diamond reversal pattern last week, and now we see its implementation. The movement goes, as it should be in this case, down. We do not buy.

Falling scenario: by the end of Friday, we still recommend to sell. The summer season is coming to the end. Fuel demand is starting to fall. We are waiting for prices around 330.0.

Recommendation:

Purchase: think when approaching 330.0.

Sale: now. Stop: 382.0. Target: 300.0. Those who are in positions between 370.0 and 375.0, move the stop to 382.0. Target: 300.0.

Support — 329.00. Resistance — 392.25.

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario: October futures, the expiration date is September 28. At 2.45 we have a technical resistance. Most likely we will overcome it and reach 2.73. But! There are options. Or we’ll go straight to 2.73. Or we will roll back to 1.93 at the beginning and go up only then. Take this point into account.

Falling scenario: situation with shorts is the same, we will sell when approaching 2.730, not earlier. Market is in a growing trend.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Anyone in the position from 1.850, keep the stop at 1.930. Target: 2.730 (3.500?).

Selling: think when approaching 2.73.

Support — 2.080. Resistance — 2.730.

Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

At the end of the week, the bulls are inert, the bears have slowed down, and meanwhile, prices are growing on the market, which tells us that at the moment speculators are not setting the tone for trading.

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date is September 14. Against the background of the Beijing-Washington dialogue, prices moved up on Friday. We have a good chance of reaching the 564.0 level. Therefore, you must continue to hold the previously opened longs.

Falling scenario: buyers defended the level of 500.0. All the sellers fled. We see a rise in prices. Do not sell.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Those who are in positions between 492.0 and 499.0, move the stop to 502.0. Target: 564.0 (600.0).

Sale: no.

Support — 516.4. Resistance — 535.4.

Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group

You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

We see the outcome of speculators-sellers. The fall in short positions during the week amounted to almost 60 thousand contracts. Sure that sellers failed to push the market below 300.0. Buyers will arrive at the re-directioned market, but a large harvest will put a bridle on a bull’s optimistic feelings.

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date is September 14. On Thursday, we see a small body and a long downward shadow at the candlestick. This is a local reversal signal. We can predict an upward movement to 340.0. It is not clear whether there will be further growth.

Falling scenario: from 340.0 you can try to sell on hourly intervals. There is nothing more interesting in this market yet.

Recommendation:

Purchase: by touching 323.0. Stop: 319.0. Target: 340.0.

Sale: no.

Support — 320.6. Resistance — 332.0.

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date is September 14. We see a rollback that can be used to build up previously opened positions. Prices are still high for the new purchases.

Falling scenario: don’t sell. Soybean demand may remain high in the fall, which will support prices.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Those who are in the position from 863.0, move the stop to 876.0. Target: 950.0. (1030.0). Those interested can slightly (+ 20%) increase the long.

Sale: no.

Support — 879.2. Resistance — 953.2.

Sugar 11 white, ICE

Growth scenario: October futures, the expiration date is September 30. Prices continue to be in a growing price channel. The corrective move to 12.40 can be used to build up the position. The target is the same — 14.00.

Falling scenario: we will think about shorts when prices approach 14.00. The market does not force events, which indicates a high probability of technical development of all waves of the standard upward impulse.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Whoever is in the position from 12.11, keep the stop at 11.97. Target: 14.00 (16.80).

Sale: no.

Support — 12.39. Resistance — 14.01.

Сoffee С, ICE

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date is September 18. The move from 120.0 to 105.0 remains technically possible. Therefore, we keep longs. We open new ones only with a deep correction.

Falling scenario: here you can sell, working out the probability of a move to 105.0. The risk in points is small, therefore, the profit / risk ratio is high, which is attractive.

Recommendation:

Purchase: by touching 105.0. Stop: 102.0. Target: 146.0. Anyone in the position from 110.0, keep the stop at 102.0. Target: 146.0.

Sale: now. Stop: 124.0. Target: 105.0.

Support — 109.60. Resistance — 127.40.

Gold. CME Group

Growth scenario: we will not buy yet. The story with the strengthening of the dollar index is still gaining momentum, therefore, it is wiser to take a break. Purchases from 1800 would be a good solution in this situation.

Falling scenario: sell here. A move to the 1800 area is technically possible. For more confidence, you can wait for the day to close below 1900.

Recommendations:

Purchase: no.

Sell: after the daily candle closes below 1900. Stop: 1944. Target: 1780.

Support — 1865. Resistance — 2087.

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: the euro is in no hurry to strengthen its positions. The pair cannot break above 1.2000 yet, which creates preconditions for a corrective move. It is most likely that prices will move towards 1.1300. There we will think about shopping.

Falling scenario: we couldn’t take 1.2000. Prices may exit downward from the growing channel, which will lead to a move by the channel width to the 1.1300 area. You can sell here.

Recommendations:

Purchase: no.

Sale: now. Stop: 1.1928. Target: 1.1300. Who entered at the approach to 1.2000, for example from 1.1950, move the stop to 1.1928. Target: 1.1300.

Support — 1.1698. Resistance — 1.1907.

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: the new local maximum was shown on Friday, which is a technical confirmation of the move to 78.70. The federal budget deficit is growing due to problems in the economy, and oil does not show any propensity to grow, which will put pressure on the ruble. We use any pullbacks to buy the pair.

Falling scenario: we won’t talk about sales yet. The technical picture is charged with accelerating growth. The clean-cut thoughts in the published FOMC report indicate that the Fed does not see any expediency in a too weak dollar.

Purchase: on a rollback to 73.50. Stop: 72.40. Anyone in the position from 73.10, keep the stop at 72.40. Target: 78.70 (85.00).

Sale: no.

Support — 72.18. Resistance — 78.70.

RTSI

Growth scenario: very alarming Friday trading results. Prices came out of the growing price channel, upon that they pushed down from one of the significant resistance levels at 1342. If prices stay below 1300 on Monday, this will be a reason to enter the short. We do not buy.

Falling scenario: SP500 claims to set a new maximum, but there is a big question will the American optimism spread to the Russian market. The strengthening of the dollar index will prevent the RTS index from moving upwards, and the growing problems of Russian companies due to the economic downturn will reduce the attractiveness of securities for investors. If the index falls below 1228, we will sell.

Pay attention to the number of advertisements for buying stocks and other investments. Too many clients at low interest rates who do not know what to do with their money. Is this not a reason to fall. The crowd should always remain in the red. It’s the law of jungle.

Recommendations:

Purchase: no.

Sell: by touching 1228. Stop: 1268. Target: 1000.

Support — 1222. Resistance — 1342.

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

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