Аналитика

Price forecast weekly from 7 to 11 of September 2020

07 сентября 2020, 12:50

Energy market:

Expectations of market price discounts from Saudi Arabia to the buyers, both regular and new, put prices down never approaching 47.00 level.

Since producers can increase their production capacity at any time, we are in the buyer’s market, who can choose a supplier and demand a discount.

Neither the drop in production in the US to 9.7 million barrels per day, nor the optimistic scenario for the recovery of the German economy helps.

Countries with low production costs will continue to dictate terms to other exporters both within OPEC and outside the cartel, taking large market shares due to low prices amid falling demand for oil.

As you can see, no second wave of coronavirus is needed to drop prices. But if it does exist?

Grain market:

Exporters on September 3 offered Egypt at the next tender wheat at $ 225 per ton and more. As a result, out of 11 participants, the product was purchased from one. This is actually a failure. The Egyptian government urges traders not to bury themselves. The $ 20 price hike in two weeks irritates the largest buyer. Prices have reached a pain threshold and the exporter is not willing to pay more.

There are problems with corn in China. There is an internal rise in prices for it, which creates the preconditions for large purchases from abroad, primarily from the USA. This fact should support the market for the main forage crop.

We are waiting for the next USDA report on 11 September. It is expected that the volume of gross harvest in the current season for wheat and corn will be adjusted downward.

Reading our forecasts, you could make money on the soybean market by taking a move from 863 to 960.

USD/RUB:

Let us note for ourselves the level of 73.42, this is the minimum of the very day when Germany made a statement that Navalny was poisoned. While the risks of sanctions on this matter remain, especially Trump said that he trusts the conclusions of German experts, the ruble is unlikely to be able to go below 73.50.

Belarus is gradually fading into the background in the news, but it is already clear that in order for the Kremlin to keep Minsk in its sphere of influence it will have to pay, and much more than before.

The imposition of a ban by the Ministry of Finance on the publication of budget revenues from the oil and gas sector plunges us into a very bad reality. This means that now, when we hear that the budget deficit is, for example, 10% at the end of the year, we will have to figure out how much money was borrowed and how much was just printed.

It remains to close the data on exports and revenues of oil and gas companies.

Brent. ICE

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the ICE exchange.

We see that sellers have been building up pressure for three weeks. There is no doubt that their number will grow even more next week. Buyers turn away, that’s right decision. Medium-term opportunities will open up for them only after the market falls by 15-20%.

Growth scenario: September futures, expiration date is September 30. The data on the US labor market failed to support prices. By offering discounts, Saudi Arabia does not seek to warm up the market, which led us to exit the range downwards, not upwards. We do not buy.

Falling scenario: who entered after the breakout of 44.00, be patient and stand still. Who missed Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, wait for a pullback to 44.00 and sell.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no.

Sale: by touching 44.00. Stop: 45.60. Target: 32.10. Whoever is in position from 43.95, keep the stop at 45.60. Target: 32.10.

Support — 32.05. Resistance — 44.24.

WTI. CME Group

Fundamental: the number of oil drilling rigs in the US came up by 1 unit to 181 units.

US commercial oil reserves fell by -9.362 to 498.401 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by -4.32 to 234.859 million barrels. Distillate stocks fell -1.675 to 177.52 million barrels. Inventories at the Cushing storage facility rose 0.11 to 52.513 million barrels.

Oil production fell by -1.1 to 9.7 million barrels per day. Oil imports fell -1.016 to 4.9 million barrels per day. Oil exports fell by -0.361 to 3.002 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports fell by -0.655 to 1.898 million barrels per day. Refining fell by -5.3 to 76.7 percent.

Gasoline demand fell by -0.375 to 8.786 million barrels per day. Gasoline production rose 0.016 to 9.534 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports rose 0.038 to 0.577 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports fell by -0.051 to 0.569 million barrels per day.

Distillate demand fell by -0.04 to 3.918 million barrels. Distillate production fell by -0.343 to 4.779 million barrels. Distillate imports rose by 0.037 to 0.166 million barrels. Distillate exports rose 0.172 to 1.266 million barrels per day.

The demand for oil products fell by -2.64 to 16.979 million barrels. Distillate production fell -1.78 to 20.103 million barrels. Distillate imports fell by -0.512 to 1.62 million barrels. Gasoline exports rose 0.55 to 5.069 million barrels per day.

Propane demand fell by -0.592 to 0.623 million barrels. Propane production fell by -0.103 to 2.167 million barrels. Propane imports fell by -0.016 to 0.099 million barrels. Propane exports rose 0.066 to 1.016 million barrels per day.

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

We see that sellers were a little bit more active than buyers. It is very likely that after red Thursday and Friday the number of sellers will increase and the bulls will have to run. Note that Brent sellers were more active and more far-seeing, went in shorts two or three days earlier.

Growth scenario: October futures, the expiration date is September 22. September starts very interesting. We have come out of the wedge down and now it makes no sense to buy until prices come to 36.00, or better to 31.20. We do not buy.

Falling scenario: we offered to sell when the market closes below 41.00. This event only happened on Friday. Not the best entry to the sale. Whoever bought keeps the shorts. Returning to 41.00 may enter those who missed the fall.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no.

Sale: when rolled back to 41.00. Stop: 42.70. Target: 30.00. Whoever is in the position from 39.80, keep the stop at 42.70. When rolled back to 41.00 can be added to the shorts.

Support — 35.18. Resistance — 41.38.

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: October futures, the expiration date is October 12. The fuel went down after the oil. There is no sense to buy here. Let’s wait for more interesting levels.

Falling scenario: we wrote a week earlier “you have to stand in shorts and wait,”. The opinion has not changed. The market will continue to fall to 315.0, possibly to 300.0, further developments are still in question.

Recommendation:

Purchase: think when approaching 300.0.

Sale: no. Those who are in positions between 370.0 and 375.0, move the stop to 378.0. Target: 300.0.

Support — 340.50 (315.00). Resistance — 364.00.

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario: October futures, the expiration date is September 28. Another corrective downward branch to the 2.100 area suggests itself. We will wait for her. Preparing money.

Falling scenario: keep the shorts open from 2.730 and wait for the market to fall to 2.100. Those interested can sell now.

Recommendation:

Purchase: by touching 2.120. Stop: 2.060. Target: 3.536.

Sale: now. Stop: 2.760. Target: 2.120. Anyone in the position from 2.730, keep the stop at 2.760. Target: 2.120.

Support — 2.102. Resistance — 2.730.

Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

We see a large and out-of-date aggregate speculative bid from the bulls of almost 20 thousand contracts. Assuming that someone on the market always knows something, we can assume that we are waiting for a major contract for the sale of American wheat to China or Europe.

Growth scenario: December futures, expiration date is December 14. There is a feeling of incomplete upward movement. For now, let’s not rush and move stop orders closer to the current values. We are waiting for a rollback to 530.0 and continued growth.

Falling scenario: we continue to believe that it is better to refrain from selling until prices rise to 600.0. We do not sell.

Recommendation:

Purchase: on a rollback to 530.0. Stop: 510.0. Target: 600.0. Whoever is in positions between 492.0 and 499.0, keep the stop at 510.0. Target: 600.0.

Sale: thinking when approaching 600.0.

Support — 545.4. Resistance — 567.4.

Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group

We are looking at the volumes of open interest of managers. You should take into account that this is data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the last week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group exchange.

Sellers have been fleeing the market for three weeks. Despite the huge harvest, the prices were unable to break through to the level of 250.0 in August as part of the fall. Now, those who believed in such a scenario are forced to admit defeat. The bulls are still behaving modestly, which leaves chances for a correctional move down from the current levels.

Growth scenario: December futures, the expiration date is December 14. We are waiting for a rollback to 350.0. The current levels for purchases are too high.

Falling scenario: it makes sense to sell from 387.0, not earlier. The harvest is ripe. Nobody knows what will happen next. We do not expect strong growth, but prices may well rise by 10 percent.

Recommendation:

Purchase: by touching 351.0. Stop: 338.0. Target: 387.0.

Sale: no.

Support — 346.2. Resistance — 359.4.

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: November futures, the expiration date is November 13. Against the background of China’s plans to buy soybeans in the fourth quarter in the US, we see an increase in prices. The chances of reaching 1040 are real. We keep longs.

Falling scenario: a corrective move is obvious. However, we have risen above 960.0, which is confusing. We keep shorts from 960.0, do not open new positions.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Who did not close everything at 960.0, move the stop to 959.0. Target: 1040.0.

Sale: no. Whoever is in position from 960.0, keep the stop at 973.0. Target: 920.0.

Support — 914.0. Resistance — 991.2.

Sugar 11 white, ICE

Growth scenario: October futures, the expiration date is September 30. Unfortunately, we have broken the growing price channel down. We take a break. You can buy when you approach 10.90.

Falling scenario: the short from 12.80 looks good. Let’s continue to sell with targets at 10.50. By touching 10.90, 20% of the position can be closed.

Recommendation:

Purchase: by touching 10.90. Stop: 10.40. Target: 14.00.

Sale: no. Those who are in the position from 12.80, move the stop to 12.60. Target: 10.90.

Support — 11.26. Resistance — 12.51.

Сoffee С, ICE

Growth scenario: September futures, the expiration date is September 18. We wrote a week earlier “If we see growth above 128.0, we can build up longs”. The path to 146.0 is now open. Keep purchases.

Falling scenario: now it will be possible to enter the short only when approaching 146.00. The current growth looks aggressive.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Whoever is in position from 110.0, keep the stop at 124.0. Target: 146.0.

Sale: by touching 146.0. Stop: 149.0. Target: 128.0.

Support — 127.40. Resistance — 146.70.

Gold. CME Group

Growth scenario: we see prerequisites for the continuation of the fall. Prices fail to gain a foothold above 1950. Exit from the growing channel downward may lead to a rapid move towards 1800.

Falling scenario: continue to wait for the market to fall below 1900. If this happens, we will go short. It is possible that you will have to wait until September 16 (US Federal Reserve meeting).

Recommendations:

Purchase: no.

Sale: after the daily candle closes below 1900. Stop: 1944. Target: 1780.

Support — 1865. Resistance — 1988.

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: the market tried to go above 1.2000 but failed. Technically, everything is ready for correction. Let’s refrain from shopping for now.

Falling scenario: if the market goes below 1.1770, you need to sell. Before us is the “head and shoulders” reversal pattern. If it is finally formed, it can lead to a move to at least 1.1520.

Recommendations:

Purchase: no.

Sale: by touching 1.1770. Stop: 1.1860. Target: 1.1520 (1.1320).

Support — 1.1471. Resistance — 1.2008.

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: stay in the growing channel. A week earlier, we recommended buying when approaching 73.00. If you’ve done that, then good. Political risks remain high. Washington is still silent, but the scandal with Navalny is not slowing down. We can count on a rise to 78.60.

Falling scenario: the closure by the Ministry of Finance of data on budget revenues from oil and gas is not the background against which the national currency can count on strengthening. There is a big risk that by the fourth quarter, despite the secrecy on the part of the government, the size of the problems in the economy will become clear. We do not sell.

Purchase: no. Those who are in position from 73.10, move the stop to 72.90. Target: 78.70 (85.00).

Sale: thinking after falling below 73.00.

Support — 74.65. Resistance — 78.59.

RTSI

Growth scenario: we left the growing channel a week earlier, stood there, thought, and sat down even lower. This is an extremely weak structure in order to count on a reversal and, in the long term, growth. Russia is losing markets for raw materials, which will put pressure on both mining companies and banks. We do not buy.

Falling scenario: on the eve of the Fed meeting on September 16, the American stock market stalled. This creates a negative background and contributes to the fall in the value of Russian securities, since the shares of the emerging market are the first in line to be sold in case of any problems. There is no reason to expect any success in the economy this year, so sales in the current situation look appropriate.

Recommendations:

Purchase: no.

Sale: by touching 1240. Stop: 1268. Target: 1000. Who is in position from 1228, keep the stop at 1268. Target: 1000.

Support — 1171. Resistance — 1342.

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

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