Аналитика

PRICE FORECAST WEEKLY FROM 28 SEPTEMBER TO 2 OCTOBER 2020

28 сентября 2020, 12:13

Energy market:

The second wave of coronavirus is increasingly gripping the heads of traders. So the risk of a significant drop in oil prices increases every day.

OPEC + countries will have to respond to new challenges, but even a proportional reduction in production may turn out to be unacceptable for a number of countries due to the deteriorating internal economic situation. And this is a reason for conflict. However, the big players, whose budgets are highly dependent on oil prices, have no alternative. Only joint actions can remove the excess oil from the market, which will inevitably arise in the event of strengthening of quarantine measures.

The next meeting of the OPEC technical committee is scheduled for October 15, the ministerial meeting for October 19. Brent has plenty of time to drop to $ 35 a barrel.

Grain market:

The strengthening of the dollar last week suspended the growth of prices for wheat and corn, however, for now we cannot say that a downward reversal is outlined in the grain market.

The IGC has cut its forecast for cereals global production (wheat and coarse grains) in 2020/21 by 3 million tons compared to last month to 2,227 million tons. The new crop is up 46 million tonnes from the previous year, driven primarily by a 39 million tonne increase in corn production to a record 1,160 million tonnes.

Prices will not be easy to rise against the background of actual abundance. At this stage, the market can only be pushed up by fears of coronavirus and local collusion of exporters, which is unlikely to last long, since not everyone has long-term storage opportunities. In order not to ruin the grain, very soon a number of companies will offer their products at tenders at prices lower than those of competitors.

USD/RUB:

Sure enough, the Russian government will increase fiscal pressure due to the current gap in the budget. An expectation of a reduction in the deficit due to the measures taken could help the ruble stay below the 80.00 level.

If for some reason next week the dollar rate rises above the level of 80.00, we can get, possibly already on Friday, an emergency meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at which the rate will be raised by 0.25 — 0.50%. It is unlikely that in order to curb the exchange rate, the Bank will throw the currency out of its reserves into the market, since the trade balance in the third and fourth quarters will be negative and will reach $ 20 billion.

Brent. ICE

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the ICE exchange.

We see that some of the sellers have left, but this has not yet influenced the market situation in any way. Sufficient pressure continues to be exerted on buyers to maintain the preconditions for the continuation of the fall.

Growth scenario: October futures, the expiration date is October 30. Prices failed to rise above 45.00. For us, this means that there is no situation in which we could start a conversation about shopping.

Falling scenario: stand still in shorts. At the current levels, those who wish can increase their positions. During the week, not a single long green candle appeared on the market. Bulls are milk-and-water. So we can sell.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no.

Sale: now. Stop: 43.70. Target: 32.10. Those who are in positions between 43.95 and 42.00, move the stop to 43.70. Target: 32.10 (25.00 ?!). A puncture is possible by 45.00. There you can place a separate order for a short.

Support — 41.12 (35.04). Resistance — 43.95.

WTI. CME Group

Fundamental US data: the number of oil drilling rigs rose by 4 units to 183 units.

Commercial oil reserves fell by -1.639 to 494.406 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by -4.025 to 227.499 million barrels. Distillate stocks fell by -3.364 to 175.942 million barrels. Inventories at Cushing’s storage facility rose 0.004 to 54.281 million barrels.

Oil production fell by -0.2 to 10.7 million barrels per day. Oil imports rose by 0.16 to 5.168 million barrels per day. Oil exports increased by 0.427 to 3.022 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports fell by -0.267 to 2.146 million barrels per day. Refining fell -1 to 74.8 percent.

Gasoline demand rose 0.037 to 8.515 million barrels per day. Gasoline production rose 0.496 to 9.315 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports fell by -0.126 to 0.474 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports rose 0.24 to 0.746 million barrels per day.

Distillate demand rose 1.15 to 3.959 million barrels. Distillate production rose 0.067 to 4.47 million barrels. Distillate imports rose 0.024 to 0.136 million barrels. Distillate exports fell by -0.084 to 1.128 million barrels per day.

The demand for petroleum products increased by 1.412 to 18.439 million barrels. Distillate production increased by 1.178 to 20.778 million barrels. Distillate imports rose 0.042 to 2.035 million barrels. Gasoline exports increased by 0.558 to 4.973 million barrels per day.

Propane demand fell by -0.429 to 1.049 million barrels. Propane production rose 0.065 to 2.228 million barrels. Propane imports rose 0.021 to 0.11 million barrels. Propane exports rose 0.089 to 1.039 million barrels per day.

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

Speculators began to doubt that prices could continue to fall. Short positions are being closed for two weeks in a row, however, the market does not turn up. It is psychologically difficult to believe in the rise in prices against the background of the growing second wave of infections.

Growth scenario: November futures, the expiration date is October 20. We continue to believe that while the market is below 44.00 it is not worth buying. We do not take the current agitation around 40.00 seriously.

Falling scenario: another downward branch to the area of 32.00 suggests itself. We will continue to recommend sales. It is not clear what fundamental factor can support oil prices at this stage. Demand is falling due to the virus, the dollar is growing. In Libya, production and, most importantly, export resumed, in the USA, albeit slightly, but the number of drilling rigs increased.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no.

Sale: now. Stop: 41.70. Target: 30.00. Those who are in the position from 39.80, move the stop to 41.70. Target: 30.00. A puncture up to 42.50 is possible. There you can put a separate sell order.

Support — 36.53. Resistance — 42.54.

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: October futures, the expiration date is October 12. Back to 315.0. It’s a good thing we didn’t go into purchase last week. The market is quite capable of falling to 300.0 amid pandemic worries. We do not buy.

Falling scenario: continue to wait for the move to 300.0. Sales from 340.0 turned out to be quite good. We will continue to hold short positions. Here those willing who sold from 375.0 can close 15 — 20% of the volume with a profit

Recommendation:

Purchase: no.

Sale: no. Those who are in positions between 340.0, 370.0 and 375.0, move the stop to 353.0. Target: 300.0 (270.0).

Support — 315.00. Resistance — 344.25.

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario: October futures, the expiration date is September 28. We had a stop at 380.0 since last week. The minimum was at 1.795. Then the prices tried to go lower for two more days, but could not. That is, if you followed the market, you should be in the longs now.

Falling scenario: we will not sell. The long green Wednesday candle looks scary. And our fear overrides all thoughts of shorts for now.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Those who are in the position from 1.820, move the stop to 1.790. Stop: 1.800. Target: 3.536.

Sale: no.

Support — 1.797. Resistance — 2.730.

Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

Sellers seem to be reluctantly increasing pressure, but so far this has not led to anything significant. The market situation is conterminous. If short positions continue to rise for another week, this may lead to a reversal of the trend.

Growth scenario: December futures, the expiration date is December 14. It should be admitted that if the market falls below 540.0, then the situation will become uncertain. But until that happens, you can buy aggressively by placing stop orders close to the entry point.

Falling scenario: we will have to think hard about selling if prices fall below 520.0, because in this case the entire August upward impulse will lose all its significance. As a result traders will think about moving somewhere to 400.0.

Recommendation:

Purchase: now. Stop: 534.0. Target: 610.0. Those who are in positions between 492.0 and 499.0, move the stop to 534.0. Target: 610.0 (650.0).

Sale: no.

Support — 540.6. Resistance — 567.0.

Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

The bulls aggressively bought up corn contracts, but this did not help them. The market has stopped growing. Sellers were tempted to push through the significant area 360.0. It will not be surprising if the decline in short positions is replaced by an increase in the next week.

Growth scenario: December futures, the expiration date is December 14. Due to the high prices, we could not buy last week. This situation is somewhat better. We’ll buy, but put a stop close. In general, we expect a fall to 346.0.

Falling scenario: we have one idea — to sell from 387.0. The current levels are of no interest. A possible move to 346.0 can be worked out at 1H intervals.

Recommendation:

Purchase: now. Stop: 359.0. Target: 387.0. Think when approaching 346.0.

Sale: by touching 387.0. Stop: 397.0. Target: 365.0.

Support — 362.0. Resistance — 370.2.

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: November futures, the expiration date is November 13. We need to go down to 966.0 at least so that we can talk about new purchases. We do nothing at the current levels.

Falling scenario: we stand in shorts, waiting for prices to arrive at 966.0. It is possible that next week there will be a return to 1020.0, this rise can be used to build up shorts.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no.

Sale: by touching 1020.0. Stop: 1042.0. Target: 966.0. Anyone in the position from 1040.0, move the stop to 1042.0. Target: 966.0.

Support — 965.6 Resistance — 1026.0.

Sugar 11 white, ICE

Growth scenario: March futures, the expiration date is February 26. If the market fails to move quickly above 13.60, it will lead to a switch to the 11.70 area. Therefore, the one who is in the longs will move his stop orders to 13.20. We do not buy.

Falling scenario: great place for a short. We go on sale, we are not afraid of anything. If the market turns down, a good result awaits us.

Recommendation:

Purchase: by touching 12.00. Stop: 11.80. Target: 15.56. Or after a rise above 13.00. Stop: 12.40, Target: 15.56.

Sale: now. Stop: 13.87. Target: 11.70.

Support — 12.44. Resistance — 13.55.

Сoffee С, ICE

Growth scenario: December futures, the expiration date is December 18. Got an urge to ask: » that’s it? We are not buying yet. The last fall was too terrible.

Falling scenario: in case of growth to 125.0, one can think of shorts, but hardly worth selling from lower levels.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no.

Sale: not yet.

Support — 106.20. Resistance — 114.80.

Gold. CME Group

Growth scenario: we run the risk of falling to 1800 without an upward pullback. If this really happens, then it will be necessary to buy. The current levels are not attractive for purchases. The story of the dollar’s strengthening is not over yet.

Falling scenario: our short was appropriate. Now you have to be patient and wait. In case of market growth, 1900 can be added to open positions.

Recommendations:

Purchase: by touching 1800 and up to 1750. Stop: 1730. Target: 2200.

Sale: on return to 1900. Stop: 1940. Target: 1800 (1780). Anyone in the 1950 position, move the stop to 1940. Target: 1800 (1780).

Support — 1803. Resistance — 1882.

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: a rebound upward from 1.1630 is possible, but prices are unlikely to rise above 1.1750. Therefore, this growth is better to work out on 1H intervals. Sellers are able to push the market towards 1.1350. If Trump does not respond to the rise in infections, the dollar will continue to strengthen.

Falling scenario: in case of a return to 1.1750, you can build up shorts. The picture is very favorable for the sellers. We can safely talk about the fall to 1.1350.

Recommendations:

Purchase: no.

Sale: when approaching 1.1750. Stop: 1.1870. Target: 1.1350. Those who are in the position from 1.1850, move the stop to 1.1870. Target: 1.1350.

Support — 1.1595 (1.1500). Resistance — 1.1750.

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: we see the mark 78.90 without binoculars. We do not blame anyone who fixed a profit on Friday, for example, at 78.40. But you can wait for the execution of targets at 78.60 and 78.70. Moreover, the target can be raised to 78.90, the main thing is not to forget to tighten stop orders aggressively. We do not open new purchases. Anyone who wants to check whether the dollar breaks above the level of 80.00 leaves 25% of the entire volume opened earlier.

Falling scenario: sell by approaching 78.90. The upward impulse looks complete. You shouldn’t count on a strong pullback, but a return to 76.00 looks real.

Purchase: no. Anyone in the position between 73.10 and 75.20, move the stop to 77.90. Target: 78.90 (85.00).

Sale: by touching 78.90. Stop: 79.30. Target: 76.06.

Support — 76.50. Resistance — 78.92.

RTSI

Growth scenario: if the Central Bank is afraid of the weakening of the ruble and urgently raises the rate, the stock market will fall. If the rate is not raised, it will fall anyways, as the tax pressure is increasing. We will not think about shopping yet. There is no reason.

Falling scenario: if the market recovers to 1250, then shorts need to be increased. We have shown a new local low, which should only intensify sales next week. The 1000 target looks quite achievable.

Recommendations:

Purchase: no.

Sale: when approaching 1250. Stop: 1268. Target: 1000. Who is in position between 1240 and 1228 keep the stop at 1268. Target: 1000.

Support — 1120. Resistance — 1262.

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

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