Аналитика

PRICE FORECAST WEEKLY from 12 to 16 October 2020

12 октября 2020, 11:39

Energy market:

The market is in waiting for the OPEC technical committee meeting on the 15th, and a ministerial meeting on the 19th. Prices stopped falling. Bidders are counting on concerted action by the countries participating in the agreement to cut production.

So far, the increase in the number of infections does not cause concern in the markets. Obviously, this will continue until the authorities of the leading economic powers begin to restrict the activities of companies by means of quarantine measures.

The recovery of Brent to the level of 50.00 is possible, but this requires well-coordinated actions of the participants in the OPEC + agreement, and the absence of strict quarantine in developed countries during the second wave of coronavirus.

Reading our forecasts, you could make money in the wheat market by taking a move up from 492.00 to 600.0.

Grain market:

USDA data released on crops. The forecast for the gross harvest of wheat in the world increased by 0.34% to 773.082 million tons. The forecast for gross corn harvest fell by 0.31% to 1,158.816 million tons.

After the release of data on Friday, the wheat market stopped growing, the corn market continued to move up.

Both crops continue to be in an upward trend despite record harvests. This is due to the desire of importers to create more substantial stocks of food in case countries have to introduce strict quarantines due to the virus, which will lead to paralysis in ports for a while.

USD/RUB:

The Ministry of Finance placed FLBs worth 300 billion rubles on Wednesday, closing about 10% of all budget problems this year in one day. Investors assess Russia’s neutrality in the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh positively and are ready to lend to the state.

Against the background of the signing of a ceasefire agreement in Moscow between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the oil does not want to fall, the ruble may continue to strengthen next week.

If the ruble does return to the area of 75.00, this will remove the need for the Bank of Russia to raise the rate at the next meeting.

Brent. ICE

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the ICE exchange.

The sellers tried to attack, but in fact it’s no dice. The bulk of speculators on the eve of the OPEC meeting took a wait and see attitude.

Growth scenario: October futures, the expiration date is October 30. Prices left the falling channel and approached the resistance at 43.75. Taking this level can lead to a rapid move at 46.00, but this scenario is better to work out on 1H intervals.

Falling scenario: we left the previously opened shorts at 42.70, as we see further holding of positions as dangerous. This does not mean that the idea of moving to 35.00 has been forgotten. We will return to it in case the market falls below the level of 40.00. All attention to the OPEC meeting.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no.

Sale: thinking after falling below 40.00.

Support — 40.92. Resistance — 43.75.

WTI. CME Group

Fundamental US data: the number of active drilling rigs increased by 4 units to 193 units.

US commercial oil reserves increased by 0.501 to 492.927 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell -1.435 to 226.747 million barrels. Distillate stocks fell -0.962 to 171.796 million barrels. Stocks at the Cushing storage facility increased by 0.47 to 56.536 million barrels.

Oil production rose 0.3 to 11 million barrels per day. Oil imports rose 0.61 to 5.732 million barrels per day. Oil exports fell by -0.853 to 2.659 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports rose by 1.463 to 3.073 million barrels per day. Oil refining increased by 1.3 to 77.1 percent.

Gasoline demand increased by 0.367 to 8.896 million barrels per day. Gasoline production rose 0.63 to 9.522 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports rose by 0.117 to 0.849 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports rose 0.235 to 0.903 million barrels per day.

Distillate demand rose 0.213 to 3.868 million barrels. Distillate production increased by 0.174 to 4.532 million barrels. Distillate imports rose 0.089 to 0.23 million barrels. Distillate exports fell -0.268 to 1.031 million barrels per day.

The demand for oil products rose by 0.898 to 18.345 million barrels. Distillate production rose by 0.561 to 20.569 million barrels. Distillate imports rose 0.205 to 2.156 million barrels. Gasoline exports rose 0.1 to 5.24 million barrels per day.

Propane demand increased by 0.584 to 1.199 million barrels. Propane production fell by -0.092 to 2.259 million barrels. Propane imports fell by -0.065 to 0.096 million barrels. Propane exports fell by -0.143 to 1.172 million barrels per day.

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

Speculators stay put. The pressure from the sellers disappeared. On the eve of the meeting of the OPEC + countries, the market took an equilibrium position, which does not give an advantage to either side.

Growth scenario: November futures, the expiration date is October 20. It is a pity that we did not see the move to 32.00. Growth from the current levels can be continued, but it is extremely inconvenient in terms of speculation. We do not buy.

Falling scenario: within the framework of weekly forecasts, we will not be able to react to the OPEC meeting, however, we note that if prices fall below 37.50, we can again consider the probability of the market moving to 32.00.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no.

Sale: think after the market falls below 37.50.

Support — 36.53. Resistance — 42.54.

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: November futures, the expiration date is November 12. Fuel is recovered following oil. We recommended looking for upward reversal signals last week. If you are in long, keep your positions.

Falling scenario: left by a stop order, taking away $ 30 from sales from 375.00. When approaching 370.00, one can look for downward reversal signals. However, if the oil is going vertically upwards, there is no need to go short.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no.

Sale: think when approaching 370.00.

Support — 312.25. Resistance — 369.00.

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario:November futures, the expiration date is October 28. The shopping last week paid off. Winter is ahead. We keep longs counting on the movement to 3.500.

Falling scenario: we don’t sell still. We believe in the upward impulse, which was formed from July to September. It should bring the market to at least 3.500.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Anyone in the position from 2.450, move the stop to 2.480. Target: 3.500.

Sale: no.

Support — 2.607. Resistance — 2.989.

Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

Buyers pushed through the level 590.0 and lifted the quotes above 600.0. It appears that the upward movement will continue. Due to the danger of quarantine restrictions, sellers do not risk entering the market.

Growth scenario: December futures, the expiration date is December 14. The 600.0 target has been met. We took the profit. The next big target is at 675.0, but for prices to move so high, strong fundamentals are needed. For example: blocking of ports due to quarantine, strong demand from importers or a significant dollar drop. If prices drop to the area of 560.0, you can buy.

Falling scenario: sellers are better off keeping aloof for now. The market may roll back to the lower border of the ascending channel, but we are unlikely to be able to go below.

Recommendation:

Purchase: on a rollback to the area of 560.0. Stop: 540.0. Target: 675.0. Congrats with a profit.

Sale: no. Who entered the short — close everything.

Support — 587.4. Resistance — 630.0.

Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

Buyers pushed the market up to 400.0. If the bulls increase the pressure, then we will approach 430.0 without big problems. The spread between wheat and corn has become more than 200 cents, that is extremely high. The average difference between crops in recent years has been at 100 cents per bushel. If wheat continues to rise, corn is likely to rise as well.

Growth scenario: December futures, the expiration date is December 14. In case of a rollback to 370.0, you can buy. The current levels for the long are too high.

Falling scenario: aggressive growth above 390.0 destroyed our short. We take a break. We will not sell anything. Let’s see what the next week brings us.

Recommendation:

Purchase: on touch 371.0. Stop: 368.0. Target: 430.0.

Sale: on touch 430.0. Stop: 437.0. Target: 396.0.

Support — 379.2. Resistance — 399.2.

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: November futures, the expiration date is November 13. The gross harvest of soybeans in the world was reduced by 0.34% to 368.469 million tons. Considering that the population has started to consume less meat and is switching to grain and oilseeds, the prospect of moving towards 1177.0 is perceived positively. We buy now and as we go down to 1000.0.

Falling scenario: we didn’t see the move to 940.0. Nothing wrong. The next round of sales will be at the approach to the 1180 area.

Recommendation:

Purchase: now and up to 1000.0. Stop: 980.0. Target: 1177.0.

Sale: when approaching 1180. Stop: 1192. Target: 1066.0.

Support — 1045.0 Resistance — 1177.0.

Sugar 11 white, ICE

Growth scenario: March futures, the expiration date is February 26. Prices went above 13.80, which is somewhat aggressive. The target opened at 15.90. We will buy from the current levels and as it falls to 13.30. Target: 15.90.

Falling scenario: after we failed with a short around 13.70, we take a break. The next attempt to enter the short will be around 16.00.

Recommendation:

Purchase: now and until 13.30. Stop: 13.20. Target: 15.90.

Sale: when approaching 16.00. Stop: 16.17. Target: 14.10.

Support — 13.79. Resistance — 15.95.

Сoffee С, ICE

Growth scenario: December futures, the expiration date is December 18. No wonder we entered the long from 104.0. Considering the optimism in all agricultural markets, we can count on further growth in quotations.

Falling scenario: we continue to believe that only in case of growth to 125.00 can we think about shorts. The current levels are of no interest.

Recommendation:

Purchase: now. Stop: 104.00. Target: 125.00. Those who are in the position from 104.0, move the stop to 104.0. Target: 125.0.

Sale: no.

Support — 106.20. Resistance — 114.80.

Gold. CME Group

Growth scenario: the dollar index is losing heavily on Friday. The long green candlestick looks strong. However, while we will not buy inside the falling channel. In case of growth above 1950, you can buy.

Falling scenario: if prices do not roll back on Monday, the bulls will most likely be able to go above 1930, which would jeopardize the level of 1950. We hold old positions, do not open new ones.

Recommendation:

Purchase: if it rises above 1955. Stop: 1922. Target: 2260.

Sale: no. Whoever is in position between 1950 and 1900, hold a stop at 1940. Target: 1780.

Support — 1867. Resistance — 1973.

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: we urged you to think if the market rises above 1.1800. And it happened. Here you can buy with targets at 1.2500. If on Monday we see that the market is not retracing, then this will mean that we are heading towards the specified target.

Falling scenario: we do not open new positions. We recommend moving the stop order to the level of 1.1841. There are suspicions that the talk about new shorts will not come soon.

Recommendations:

Purchase: now and as it falls to 1.1780. Stop: 1.1770. Target: 1.2500.

Sale: no. Those who are in positions between 1.1850 and 1.1750, move the stop to 1.1841. Target: 1.1350.

Support — 1.1688. Resistance — 1.2001.

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: if prices pass below 76.70, the target will open at 74.12. There will be some struggle at 76.50, but the temptation to break through the long-term support line will force sellers to attack violently. It is unlikely that this support will resist, which will lead to a continued fall in this pair of currencies. We don’t see any shopping opportunities yet.

Falling scenario: if the market rises to 77.50, you need to sell. If prices fall below 76.70, you can sell on hourly intervals with targets at 74.12. It is not safe to enter short on a breakdown on daily intervals, we do not recommend it.

Purchase: no.

Sale: when approaching 77.50. Stop: 78.60. Target: 74.12.

Support — 76.64 (74.12). Resistance — 78.48.

RTSI

Growth scenario: there is a threat of growth to 1230. It is enough for the market to pass above 1180 for this target to open. Note that the SP500 is growing, which provides a good external background.

Falling scenario: given the strong weakening of the dollar, as well as the successful solution of the budget deficit problem by the Government of the Russian Federation through the sale of FLBs, we recommend tightening stop orders aggressively on existing open positions. Do not open new shorts.

Recommendations:

Purchase: on touch 1181. Stop: 1147. Target: 1230 (1330?).

Sale: no. Those who are in positions between 1240 and 1228, move the stop to 1181. Target: 1000.

Support — 1132. Resistance — 1178.

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

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